If Trump and DeSantis Meet on Debate Stage, Who Would Win?

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has long teased a potential 2024 presidential bid, and this week, the Republican provided the clearest evidence yet that he would run for the White House during his debate with Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist.

“Why don’t you look in the eyes of the people of the state of Florida and say to them if you’re reelected, you will serve a full four-year term as governor?” Crist asked DeSantis on Monday night. “Yes or no?”

After an extended moment of silence from DeSantis, the governor sidestepped the question, neither promising to remain governor of Florida should he be re-elected in two weeks nor declaring a 2024 bid. Instead, he said the only candidate he was focused on defeating was Crist.

But the silence caught the attention of several commentators, who questioned how DeSantis would fare in a hypothetical matchup against former President Donald Trump, whose fiery and outspoken personality dominated his media coverage in his 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns and during his time in the Oval Office .

The governor’s hesitation to answer Crist’s question prompted comparisons to a deer in headlights and led some to argue that DeSantis lacks Trump’s charisma on stage.

“DeSantis is not a national player based on tonight’s debate,” Daily Beast columnist Faceat Ali tweeted on Monday. “I know MAGA donors think he is, but he is going to wilt under those bright lights in 2024. Can’t wait for him to be exposed to actual pressure.”

DeSantis vs. Trump

Thus far, DeSantis is the only Republican who has been able to mount a real challenge to Trump, should both men run for president in the next election.

Although polling in a hypothetical 2024 GOP primary still predicts Trump to be the frontrunner, DeSantis has repeatedly shored up double-digit support, the only other Republican to do so. Over the summer, one survey from the University of New Hampshire even had the two at near equal levels of support.

But DeSantis’ debate performance questions whether he’d see the same poll numbers under the direct and likely unabashed attacks from Trump once his hat is officially in the ring.

Gregory Koger, chair of the University of Miami’s political science department, told Newsweek that despite Trump receiving significant negative press coverage, his ability to attract the media has also tremendously benefitted him.

“In this sense, Trump has a distinct advantage over DeSantis,” Koger said.

It’s a challenge that experts say any GOP candidate running against Trump would face—a struggle this year’s midterms have been revealed, according to Republican strategist Alex Patton.

“Any Republican seems to be at a disadvantage to Trump’s style,” Patton said. “Trump’s style is difficult to beat in this social media clip world. Often his rivals come off as bad imitators.”

GOP strategist Jay Townsend agreed that it would be a mistake for DeSantis to try to copy Trump’s unique manner, adding that to successfully run against the former president, DeSantis would need his own style and persona, one that offers “a pleasant contrast to Trump’s typical bombast.”

DeSantis vs. Media

Although DeSantis will have a tough primary rival in Trump, if both Republicans run for the presidential nomination, experts also predict that the governor’s greatest 2024 opponent would be the media.

Koger said that while Trump won’t ask DeSantis hard questions about his controversial politics—like Florida’s COVID-19 policies, his “election police” or his feud with Disney over the so-called “Don’t Say Gay” bill—the media will.

“DeSantis’ debate performance suggests he may not be prepared for hard scrutiny,” Koger said, adding that the governor is “most comfortable with Republican-leaning media like Fox News, where he does not face a lot of uncomfortable topics or issue framing. “

The majority of DeSantis’ news coverage exists of Fox News. Last year, a report from the Tampa Bay Times showed that various Fox shows requested his appearance on the conservative network 113 times in a three-month period after the 2020 election. He also gave Fox the “exclusive” on the signing of Florida’s contentious election bill, allowing only reporters from the network to attend the event.

For the most part, DeSantis has avoided the mainstream media and limited much of his interactions with reporters to local press. But experts point out that he won’t be able to control his image in the same way if he runs on a national stage, and that he doesn’t have to look far for a cautionary tale.

Sharing a video of Monday’s debate, Nicholas Grossman of the University of Illinois drew parallels between DeSantis and former Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016, describing Walker as “a GOP governor with little charisma who became a way- too-early presidential ‘contender’ because some conservative commentators like how he picked a fight with people they don’t like.”

Koger said Grossman’s comparison was fitting, recalling that Walker was comfortable when he stayed on his talking points but fought once reporters moved him off topic, “the way DeSantis did when faced with Crist’s question about serving a full term.”

“Walker was a handsome governor who was excited the base of the Republican Party but who would have struggled to build a national majority in a presidential election, which may be DeSantis’ fate as well,” Koger said.

Patton said DeSantis still has time to polish up his debate skills for 2024 but added that in order to do so, “his team will need to stop reading their own press clippings and get to work.”